Second half of southwest monsoon between August and September likely to be normal, says IMD

The second half of the southwest monsoon between August and September is likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. The rainfall is expected to be between 95% and 105% of the Long Period Average, or LPA, it added.

The LPA is a mean of the rainfall recorded in the country over a period of 50 years. It acts as a benchmark against which the rainfall in any monsoon season is measured, according to The Business Line.

If the rainfall is below 90% of the LPA, the country is said to have received deficient rainfall. In the same way, when the rainfall is above 110%, the country is said to have received excess rainfall. Normal rainfall is when it falls between 96% and 104% of LPA.

In a statement, the weather department said that the rainfall in August was likely to be normal (between 94% and 106% of the LPA). “IMD [India Meteorological Department] will issue the forecast for September month rainfall towards [the] end of August or beginning of September 2021,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, the weather agency said that the rainfall in July was below normal, reported PTI. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that the rainfall in July was -7%, which is around 93% of the LPA.

Earlier, the weather department had predicted normal rainfall for July. “July brings maximum rain over the country, but there was no rainfall activity over north India until July 8 which could have been the reason behind the deficit,” Mohapatra said.

The southwest monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 3, two days behind its normal schedule. It then spread over to other parts of India by June 19. However, after June 19, the country witnessed no or negligible rainfall activity till it revived from July 8, according to PTI.

Since then, extremely heavy rainfall was recorded over coastal and central Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka. Several areas in Maharashtra were inundated due to very heavy rainfall resulting in natural calamities such as landslides that caused many deaths and property damage.

Till July 28, at least 213 residents had died due to rain-related incidents in Maharashtra, according to The News Minute. Raigad, which is the worst-hit district by the rains, alone reported 95 fatalities till that period.

Extremely heavy rain caused flooding or landslides in districts such as Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur.

North Indian states and Union Territories, including Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh, too witnessed events like cloudbursts that also claimed several lives.

On July 28, at least seven people died and 17 were injured in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kishtwar district after a cloudburst triggered flash floods in a remote village.

About 10 people were reportedly missing in flash floods triggered by a cloudburst in Himachal Pradesh’s Lahaul-Spiti district. In Tozing Nullah in the Udaipur sub-division of Lahaul Spiti district, one person was killed, another was injured, and nine were missing after flash floods on July 27 night.

According to IMD, 10% more rainfall than normal was recorded in June. Overall, the country has received 1% less rainfall than normal from June 1 to July 31.

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