The monsoon is expected to run over the entire country by Monday/Tuesday July 11/12), only three to four days behind normal timeline, as it revived two days ago after an enforced 20-day break phase.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) this (Saturday) morning said that the monsoon may enter Delhi, parts of West Uttar Pradesh; some more parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan by tomorrow (Sunday) backed up by a low-pressure area likely forming in the Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures on Saturday morning showed dense clouds massing up both over the Arabian Sea just off the West Coast and the Bay of Bengal right from the South Tamil Nadu coast and into the Central Bay where the ‘low’ is building and pulling in the monsoon current.
Active phase for next 10 days
Active monsoon may prevail over most of the country during the next 10 days, an extended outlook from the IMD said. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over North-East and Central India, the West coast and Peninsular India.
This phase will also see scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over the remaining parts of the country except over East Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal where isolated to scattered rainfall is likely.
Meanwhile, the IMD noted in the morning (Saturday) bulletin that monsoon easterlies from the Bay being sent in by the ‘low’ are expected to strengthen over North-West India during next 2-3 days and bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall for next five days, the IMD said.
East-West shear zone forms
Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Haryana, Chandigarh and from Sunday to Tuesday; Himachal Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan until Tuesday; and over Punjab and West Rajasthan on Sunday and Monday.
An East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence has established across Central India to host the active phase of the monsoon. This will drag into place a regime of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Central India during the next five days.
Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha will slip under this rain belt during this period. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Vidarbha today (Saturday) and over West Madhya Pradesh tomorrow (Sunday), the IMD outlook said.
Heavy rain for Ghat areas
Rainfall activity may escalate along the West Coast and adjoining Peninsular India for the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Maharashtra, Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Tamil Nadu until Tuesday.
This phase will also witness isolated extremely heavy falls over the Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from Monday to Wednesday; Konkan and Goa from Sunday to Wednesday; and Coastal and South Interior Karnataka on Sunday and Monday and over North Kerala on Sunday.