A less intense third Covid-19 wave could peak in India in Oct-Nov

(TibetanReview.net, Jul04’21) – A possible third wave of coronavirus infection can hit its peak during Oct-Nov if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, but it may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, reported the PTI news agency Jul 4, citing a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of Covid-19 cases.

However, the infection could spread faster during the third wave if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges, Manindra Agarwal, who was working with the Sutra Model– the mathematical projection of the Covid-19 trajectory, was cited as saying.

The report said the panel was formed by the Department of Science and Technology last year to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.

Agarwal has said: “We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20% less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions.

“The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant).” 

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Meanwhile, the latest data from India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare show that the number of daily new cases in the country had declined by 1,040 to 44,111, while the daily new deaths had increased by 217 to 955 in the past 24 hours recorded on Jul 4 at 8 AM, taking their cumulative totals to 30,545,433 cases and 402,005 deaths respectively.

The country reported its highest ever daily new cases of 4,14,188 on May 7.

Total recoveries have continued to improve to reach over 29.65 million (29,658,078 or 97.09%) while active cases have further declined to reach below .48 million (485,350 or 1.59%).

The fatality rate has increased to 1.32%.

The daily positivity rate was down to 2.34% and the weekly to 2.44%.

Kerala was the only state to continue to report more than 10,000 daily new cases.

Four states and one Union Territory, namely Maharashtra (+723), Manipur (+156), Tripura (+58), Arunachal Pradesh (+93), and Ladakh (+3) have reported increases in active cases.

Two states continue to have more than 104,000 active cases, namely Maharashtra, and Kerala, with the rest having less than 49,000 active cases.

India is currently the country with the world’s second highest total number of Covid-19 cases after the USA, and the third highest total number of deaths after the USA and Brazil.

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The cumulative total of Covid-19 cases among Tibetans in India and Nepal has remained unchanged for the second day at 5,156, according to the tally of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) on its Tibet.net website Jul 4. Of them 4,658 had recovered while 367 were active. Those who have died continue to total 131.

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Across the world the number of Covid-19 cases totaled over 183.47 million (183,474,301) and the deaths over 3.97 million (3,971,197), according to the tally of Johns Hopkins University as of Jul 4, 2021 at 1:51 PM.

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